Predicting Device Level Evolution

Predicting Device Level Evolution
Device hardware is becoming more flexible�"microcontrollers, DSPs, memory, and RF
components are all becoming more adaptable, capable of undertaking a wide range of
tasks. As device hardware becomes more flexible, it also becomes more complex.
Adding smart antennas to a base station is an example of the evolution of hardware to
become more flexible�"and, in the process, more complex.
As handset hardware becomes more complex, it becomes more capable in terms of
its ability to capture complex content. Our first chapters describe how handset hardware
is evolving�"for example, with the integration of digital CMOS imaging and
MPEG-4 encoding. As handset hardware becomes more complex, the traffic mix shifts,
becoming more complex as well. As the offered traffic mix (uplink traffic) becomes
more complex, its burstiness increases. As bandwidth becomes burstier, network hardware
has to become more complex. This is described in the third part of the book.
As handset and network hardware increases in complexity, software complexity
increases. We have to control the output from the CMOS imager and MPEG-4 encoder,
and we have to preserve the value of the captured content as the content is moved into
and through our complex network. As hardware flexibility increases, software flexibility
has to increase.
Fortunately, device development is very easy to predict. We know by looking at
process capability what will be possible (and economic) in 3 to 5 years’ time. We can
very accurately guess what the future architecture of devices such as microcontrollers,
DSPs, memory, and RF components will be in 3 to 5 years’ time. These devices are the
fundamental building blocks of a 3G network.
By studying device footprints, we know what will happen at the system and network
level over the next 5 years. We do not need to sit in a room and speculate about
the future; the future is already prescribed. That’s our justification for including the
“what will be” parts in this book. If we offer an opinion, we hope and intend that those
opinions are objective rather than subjective.28