The Amazing Growth of Mobile Communications

Over recent years, telecommunications has been a fast-growing industry.
This growth can be seen in the increasing revenues of major telecommunications
carriers and the continued entry into the marketplace of new competitive
carriers. No segment of the industry, however, has seen growth to
match that experienced in mobile communications. From relatively humble
beginnings, the last 15 years have seen an explosion in the number of
mobile communications subscribers and it appears that growth is likely to
continue well into the future.
The growth in the number of mobile subscribers is expected to continue
for some years, with the number of mobile subscribers surpassing the number
of fixed network subscribers at some point in the near future. Although
it may appear that such predictions are optimistic, it is worth pointing out
that in the past, most predictions for the penetration of mobile communications
have been far lower than what actually occurred. In fact, in several
countries, the number of mobile subscribers already exceeds the number of
fixed subscribers, which suggests that predictions of strong growth are well
founded. It is clear that the future is bright for mobile communications. For
the next few years at least, that future means third-generation systems, the
subject of this book.
Before delving into the details of third-generation systems, however, it
is appropriate to review mobile communications in general, as well as
first- and second-generation systems. Like most technologies, advances in
wireless communications occur mainly through a process of steady evolution
(although there is the occasional quantum-leap forward). Therefore,
a good understanding of third-generation systems requires an understanding
of what has come before. In order to place everything in the correct
perspective, the following sections of this chapter provide a history
and a brief overview of mobile communications in general. Chapter 2,
“First Generation (1G),” and Chapter 3, “Second Generation (2G),” provide
some technical detail on first- and second-generation systems, with the
remaining chapters of the book dedicated to the technologies involved in
third-generation systems.