Traffic Forecasts

Obviously, we need to design a network that will support the projected traffic
demand. Consequently, projecting subscriber usage is a critical first step
in the network design process. This projection often involves a certain
amount of up-front guesswork, particularly if this is the first network of a
given type in a given market. If one is building a network to compete with
someone else’s established network, then one can forecast subscriber
growth based on the competitor’s subscriber numbers, which are often publicly
available. If, however, one is building the first network in a given market
or one is building a network very soon after a competing network has
been launched, then less data is available. In such a situation, one needs to
make educated estimates based upon factors such as average household
income, existing penetration of mobile voice service (such as 2G service),
average Internet usage in the market, and similar data.

Traffic forecasts need to address several considerations, which include
the total subscriber numbers, per-subscriber voice usage, per-subscriber
data usage, and signaling demand.